Governor Tiff Macklem Indicates Transition in Monetary Policy Focus
In a pivotal announcement on Wednesday, 24/01, the Bank of Canada chose to maintain its key interest rate at 5 per cent, a decision that aligns with expectations given the current economic landscape.
However, the real headline emerged from Governor Tiff Macklem’s indication of a significant shift in the central bank’s approach, signaling a transition towards discussions about potential interest rate cuts.
“With overall demand in the economy no longer running ahead of supply, governing council’s discussion of monetary policy is shifting from whether our policy rate is restrictive enough to restore price stability, to how long it needs to stay at the current level,” Macklem stated during a news conference.
This move comes amid weaker economic growth and slowing inflation, allowing the Bank of Canada to maintain a steady policy rate while assessing the economy’s response to existing higher rates. Economists have eagerly awaited any signals regarding a potential shift to rate cuts.
Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, praised the central bank’s pivot, stating it was “as much as anyone could have hoped for.” He acknowledged the need for a transition period given the substantial shift from a bias towards hiking rates to a potential bias towards cutting rates.
Despite the shift in messaging, Governor Macklem emphasized that the central bank remains open to further rate hikes if inflation doesn’t cooperate. He stated, “If new developments push inflation higher, we may still need to raise rates.”
Canada’s inflation rate has steadily declined over the last year and a half but ticked up again in December to 3.4 per cent.
The central bank’s decision aligns with its projection for the economy to rebound in the second half of the year, with inflation expected to return to two per cent in 2025.
However, Macklem’s comments reflect a cautious approach, suggesting that discussions in the future may revolve around how long the policy rate should be maintained at the current level.
TD chief economist Beata Caranci found the central bank’s focus on shelter costs surprising, noting that these are influenced by structural barriers to homebuilding and strong population growth.
Despite the emphasis on inflation concerns, the Bank of Canada’s latest forecasts largely echo those from October, maintaining a watchful eye on economic indicators.
As the central bank navigates this transition, Canadians are left with the assurance that more rate hikes are deemed unlikely, providing a breathing space for the impact of existing high-interest rates to work their way through the system.
The economic landscape will continue to be monitored, with an eye on potential rate cuts as the Bank of Canada aims to balance economic stability with inflationary pressures.