Modelling Shows Stay At Home Order is Working: “Cases Decreasing Earlier, Faster than Projected”

Ontario’s latest round of provincial modelling shows that the province’s stay-at-home order is having a positive effect at limiting the spread of COVID-19 with cases “decreasing earlier and faster than projected” but that there’s still work to be done to see greater improvement.

Ontario’s science advisers say COVID-19 cases are declining as the province remains under its current public health measures but further limits on essential workplaces are needed to bring rates under control.

Case rates are flattening but pockets of growth remain in hot spots, with positivity rates still high in Peel Region, Toronto, and York Region.

Since mid-March, the province has seen a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases per day. Ontario’s latest stay-at-home order was enforced on April 8 and will be in place for at least six weeks until May 20.

Despite some positive developments and trends, the latest data shows ICU occupancy remains at a record high with the province saying the system is under incredible pressure.

From March 28 and April 5, Ontario saw the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care escalate by 25 percent.

Variants of concern remain prevalent in Ontario with Dr. Brown indicating more than 90 percent of current cases are a VOC and almost all of them are the B.1.1.7. variant first discovered in the United Kingdom. Dr. Brown says limiting workplace mobility is key.

In a best-case scenario with strong public health measures in place, the modelling projects 1,500 daily COVID-19 cases by mid-June and topping out at 2,000 new cases per day by July.

With moderate measures and 100,000 vaccinations administered daily, the province could see just under 3,000 cases by early June with a potential increase to 5,000 new infections by mid-July.

With weak or minimal health restrictions, cases could increase to 6,000 per day by late May into June topping out at around 10,000 new COVID-19 cases a day by July 1.

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